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In a positive turn of events, Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, has unveiled revised expectations for the UK property market. Contrary to the earlier forecast of a 4% decline in October, Knight Frank now anticipates a 3% rise in mainstream prices in 2024. This shift is part of a broader trend, with data from Halifax and Nationwide indicating a potential market upswing.
Investment opportunities
Signs of Recovery: Transaction Numbers and Mortgage Approvals
The housing market, currently operating at a fifth below its five-year average in transactions, has been carefully observed for signs of stabilisation. With the emergence of a clear pattern suggesting price bottoming, industry experts are optimistic about the market's future. A 10% increase in mortgage approvals in November 2023, coupled with a projected double-digit percentage surge in sales volumes for 2024, supports this positive outlook.
Differential Growth: London Markets and Affordability Constraints
While the overall market is expected to experience growth, the forecast for mainstream London market growth is slightly more conservative at 2%. Affordability constraints in the capital may contribute to lower-value areas outperforming London. The prime country house market is also expected to see a narrower decline (-2%) as it adjusts from the peaks observed during the pandemic.
Prime Property Markets: Risks and Expectations
Prime central London (PCL) and prime outer London (POL) markets are expected to underperform the wider UK market in 2024. Despite being 17% lower than the peak in mid-2015, Knight Frank predicts that growth in PCL will kick in more fully from the following year.
UK Rental Market Projections For Property Investment & Buy-to-Let: Striking a Balance
Changes in the rental landscape have been observed, with landlords re-entering the market after facing challenges such as red tape and taxes. While rental values are projected to grow by 5.5% in PCL and 4.5% in POL, these figures represent a slight decrease from 2023. Rising mortgage costs, taxes, and regulatory changes are expected to maintain upward pressure on rents.
Blend CEO's Perspective
Yann Murciano, CEO at Blend, notes the significant shift in sentiment within the UK housing market. Contrary to earlier predictions of a 7% decline in house prices in 2023, the market demonstrated resilience, transitioning from frenzy to a more normal state. Knight Frank's revised forecast for a 3% rise in mainstream prices in 2024 reflects this changing landscape. Despite potential short-term challenges, the overall outlook for the housing market appears more optimistic than previously anticipated.
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